Sunday, June 7. 2009That no good, nothing InternetTrackbacks
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This is an amazing blog post; excellently crafted! Thank you for posting it!
Glad you enjoyed it. It's going to be interesting to watch what the media industries do over the next 2 years. I think we've finally hit a tipping point where they'll either need to evolve or die. I fully expect that a lot of these companies will make major missteps and seriously hurt, if not destroy, themselves. Those that come out will likely be set for a long time.
I'd hope that this serves as a mechanism for some smaller players to grow and possibly oust the existing leaders, but I'm not going to hold my breath.
"What's interesting to note, however, is that distribution (both legal and illegal) increases awareness. X-Men, the pirated movie that Mr. Lynton mentions in his article, still opened with massive revenues. Why? The pirating of the movie was big news as the FBI was brought in and as the movie company ranted and raved. As a result, interest in the movie grew resulting in a big opening weekend."
I think this is the place where your argument breaks down. Aside from your own anecdotal experience, you provide no other information that suggests a link between piracy and increased popularity. As the old "Pirates vs. Global Temperature" graph illustrates, correlation (even were you to show it) does not imply causation. It could be that X-Men opened big because of a massive advertisment campaign across all medias. (Using Occams Razor, which do you find more likely -- that X-Men opened big because a few thousand nerds stopped playing WoW long enough to torrent it, or because the studio spent the monthly budget of a small country promoting it?) It could be because of reviews. It could be some combination of factors that we don't have any data on. It could even be piracy -- but again, you need to do more than point and one and point at the other and say "See?" To turn the anecdote the other way, I know that personally, in the distant past, I rarely purchased things that I downloaded for free -- nor did anyone else that I knew. Why would I? It's right there on my computer. I can burn it to a CD. Who pays for things they already have acquired at no cost? You take any widget of price X and make it available in infinite quantities for free with no strings attached (and no consequences for accepting the offer), the number of people willing to pay price X for the widget will decrease. Because they're all getting it for free. You might find a handful of people willing to toss a few nickels at someone out of pity or a sense of moral duty, but for the most part most people are too selfish to just hand money to people for no reason. If cars were magically free tomorrow and delivered over the internet, you'd probably download as many Lamborghinis as would fit in your garage. And Lamborghini would go out of business. It's highly doubtful you'd pay them $4,000 a month for the next few years out of the goodness of your heart. The internet is an awesome thing, but America is a country that mostly exports intellectual property. It does not bode well (at least for Americans) that the value of IP is becoming more and more unstable and dilluted, to the point that for some industries (newspapers, magazines, music, etc.), it's approching a point that it no longer even pays the bills, let alone makes a profit.
You make a good point, correlation != causation. It's a mistake that many of us make. Perhaps I used the wrong wording here. There seems to be an implied relationship between bad press and increased interest. Sure, there is a good bit of up-front marketing, but bad press seems to pull people in more often. I can't name the number of times I've looked into something because of the bad press it received, when I wouldn't otherwise waste my time.
Offering things for free, with no consequences, and offering them for free, if you don't get caught, are two separate things. I'm not suggesting that movies, music, etc. should be offered for free, but that the current models for offering them at all are broken. With the Internet came new avenues for obtaining "stuff" that one wanted. If "stuff" wasn't available, it was up to some enterprising person to make it available. Unfortunately, that sometimes meant piracy and other illegal activity. However, other that have embraced the Internet as a means of selling "stuff" have seen increased profits. Look at the model for the independent game developer. Pre-Internet, the revenue they could expect was pretty slim since there were limited means of advertising and spreading the word. Since the advent of the Internet, the independent developer market has blossomed and there are quite a few developers who can make a decent living doing what they love. And that includes those who suffer from piracy. There are those that will always pirate, always steal, etc. And then there are those of us who truly want to pay for what they receive, but are sometimes stymied by the system. I enjoy listening to music on my MP3 player, but when my options for purchasing music are limited to vendors the employ draconian DRM, I can no longer use my MP3 player the way I want to. For example, most of the music (and audio books) that I own are in .ogg format. I use this format because it's lightweight, open, and it works for me. However, when I get my audio books, they are DRM'ed and locked to a specific device. As a result, I have to waste time re-sampling them so I can use them on my device. I'm willing to take the time to do this, but others are not, and so they look elsewhere for what they want. Often this ends up being torrent sites. I'm more than happy to pay for what I use/play/etc. But I will not be forced to vendor lock-in. Look what happened with the Zune (http://is.gd/1awv1). Buy your music, play it, enjoy it. Oh no, the Zune marketplace no longer offers that album. Oh well, guess you can't get that music anymore, even though you already paid for it.. Vendors need to evolve. They need to modify the way they do business. There's plenty of business out there, you just need to find a way to meet the demand. As an aside.. Nice site you have, those are some incredible pictures. |
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